Breaking down the Kristaps Porzingis trade to the Celtics
This article is the first of a series that analyzes the key moves of the 2023 offseason. This series investigates the teams’ motivations for their actions rather than assigning grades. Let’s get started with a three-team blockbuster featuring the Wizards, Grizzlies, and Celtics.
The Celtics’ perspective:
Due to his ongoing effort, vigor, and intensity, Smart has long been regarded as the Celtics’ heart. Who will step into his shoes as leader? We’ll have to wait and see if Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown live up to their expectations.
That does not imply that Smart is perfect. He has never been a good scorer, and throughout his career, he has a regrettable propensity for forcing erratically timed attempts at the buzzer.
Even if he wasn’t directly involved in the transaction, you could easily make the case that Grant Williams moving out later on was a financial benefit of the arrangement. By trading for Porzingis, the Celtics increased their salary cap total by little over $7M, which made paying Williams deeper into the luxury tax less appealing.
It’s important to note that if Porzingis had opted out and signed with another team in free agency, the Celtics would not have been able to make this trade. The agreement was negotiated in June, while the previous CBA still applied, which was more forgiving of teams above the first tax apron.
Two weeks later, the Celtics would have needed to add more cash for salary-matching purposes, which might have been a deal-breaker for Washington (Boston would also have been hard-capped in that scenario, which would have been another significant barrier).
After injuring his ACL the previous season, Gallinari never played for Boston, and Muscala, a trade deadline addition, didn’t play in the team’s postseason rotation. Gallinari is 35 years old, and Muscala is 32, therefore neither seemed likely to last past this season due to their increasing ages and defensive weaknesses.
Contrarily, Porzingis, who recently turned 28, is coming off a career year in which he played in 65 games (32.6 MPG) and averaged 23.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 2.7 APG, and 1.5 BPG on.498/.385/.851 shooting. Theoretically, he is about to enter his prime. During the Tatum/Brown era, the Celtics have never had a frontcourt player as capable of scoring as the 7’3″ big man.
Porzingis is a powerful rim protector defensively because of his size, timing, and willingness to battle shots, but he isn’t very nimble or a great rebounder. It doesn’t play to his strengths to ask him to patrol the perimeter, but he can have a significant influence while roaming and in the paint.
If Porzingis is having a good offensive day, he can shoot over the vast majority of guys, making him an exceedingly difficult cover. He can score from everywhere on the court, has a long range from beyond the arc, and is skilled at using the threat of his shot to drive and draw fouls. At all times, he must be located.
It might be difficult to really get the ball to Porzingis for him to have the greatest impact there. The Celtics have a lot of shooters with Tatum, Brown, Porzingis, and Holiday now included in the mix. It will be interesting to see how the team divides up their shooting attempts.
Porzingis picked up his $36M player option as part of the deal, and the Celtics later signed him to a two-year, $60M extension, seemingly making him a franchise cornerstone for the next three years.
Boston also received the draft rights to Marcus Sasser (the No. 25 pick) and Golden State’s 2024 first-rounder (top-four protected) from Memphis, while sending Julian Phillips (the No. 35 pick) to Washington (Phillips was later flipped to Chicago). The Celtics made multiple draft-night deals and accumulated several future second-round picks, ultimately sending Sasser to Detroit while selecting Jordan Walsh.
That Warriors pick has some upside, but the 2024 draft class is considered pretty weak right now. Golden State’s core is aging and Stephen Curry has missed a significant amount of time over the past handful of seasons – depending on health, there’s a chance it could be a lottery pick, though it could also end up being a late first-rounder if everything goes right for the Warriors.
Instead of keeping the pick, the Celtics used it as part of the package for Holiday, doubling down on their aggressive offseason overhaul by once again sacrificing depth for top-end talent.
The Porzingis trade carries a good deal of risk for Boston. That risk comes in multiple forms.
For starters, Porzingis has been injury prone over the course of his career, making him an inherently high-risk, high-reward player. He was held out of the World Cup for Lativa due to plantar fasciitis in his right foot, which was concerning, but he says he’s “totally fine” now.
Porzingis’ lengthy injury history ties into Boston’s depth, or lack thereof. Boston’s six-man group of Derrick White, Holiday, Brown, Tatum, Porzingis and Al Horford has as much two-way talent as any team in the league. But Horford is 37 years old, and there are major question marks beyond those six players.
Still, it’s not like the Celtics are any different in that regard than the Bucks, Nuggets and other contenders who have elite top-end talent but shaky depth. And if Boston is healthy entering the playoffs, it will be on a very short list of favorites for its 18th NBA title.
The other primary risk of the deal is that the Celtics added a lot of salary – both now and in the future – by trading for and then extending Porzingis. Their financial commitments will only grow over time, as Brown received a super-max extension that will kick in starting in 2024/25, while Tatum will likely receive his own super-max deal next summer (that will begin in ‘25/26). Holiday is also up for a new deal; he could be a free agent in 2024 if he declines his player option.
Most teams decided to shed long-term salaries this offseason in an effort to avoid the punitive second tax apron. The Celtics obviously felt that adding Porzingis (and later Holiday) to a talented roster increased their championship odds, a gamble deemed necessary after losing in the NBA Finals in ‘21/22 and falling in the Eastern Conference Finals last season.
The Grizzlies’ perspective:
Initially, I was surprised that the Grizzlies were willing to give up a fairly strong haul of assets to acquire Smart. But the more I thought about it, the more it made sense.
Jones has been a valuable role player for Memphis over the past four seasons. He’s historically great at taking care of the basketball, having led the league in assist-to-turnover ratio each of the past five seasons. His steady presence was a nice complement to Ja Morant’s risk-taking play style.
However, he’s on an expiring $14M contract, while Smart won’t become a free agent until 2026 — he’ll earn $60.6M over the next three years. Having long-term team control is important for small market franchises like the Grizzlies, as they aren’t a free agent (or trade request) destination.
There’s no question that Smart is a direct upgrade over Jones defensively. He’s bigger, stronger and much more versatile – capable of switching across four positions. Jones is solid at defending smaller guards, but lacks the size and strength to defend up the positional spectrum.
That versatility should allow Smart to play alongside Morant more comfortably than Jones could. It was a nice change of pace offensively to have Morant off the ball at times, but it made Memphis far more exploitable on the other end when Morant and Jones were on the court together.
Smart is also better at creating his own shot on offense than Jones, and is a quality play-maker in his own right, even if his shooting is extremely streaky from game to game.
One of the best attributes that Smart will bring to Memphis is his leadership and willingness to hold teammates accountable. Given Morant’s well-documented off-court troubles over the past year-plus, adding a vocal veteran leader like Smart makes a lot of sense. That’s not to say Jones isn’t a leader in his own right, but the Grizzlies clearly needed to shake things up after a disappointing playoff run saw them lose to the Lakers in the first round.
Late first-round picks like Sasser are a crapshoot – they can be hidden gems, or out of the league after a few years. The Grizzlies have plenty of youth on their roster, so consolidating some of their assets for a proven veteran was a logical choice.
As discussed above, the Warriors pick the Grizzlies sent out does have some upside value, but the 2024 draft currently isn’t viewed favorably, and Memphis still controls all of its own future first-round picks. This trade won’t prevent the Grizzlies from making a major all-in move down the line, if they choose to go that route.
Another angle to consider is Jones may have wanted — or at least been open to — a change of scenery. Despite being one of the top backups in the league, his earning potential would always have been limited in Memphis playing behind Morant. The star guard’s 25-game suspension doesn’t change that.
Jones will have an opportunity for a bigger role in Washington, and the Grizzlies may have increased their championship odds by adding Smart, who has won a ton of games over the years and been a part of several deep playoff runs with the Celtics.
The Wizards’ perspective:
A career backup, a couple of big men who can shoot but have major defensive limitations, and a second-round pick for a borderline All-Star? That’s all the Wizards could get for Porzingis?
That’s one (rather shortsighted) way to look at this trade. The other is Washington’s new front office simply got what it could, when it could for a player who was facing an imminent decision on his $36M option. Had Porzingis declined his option and entered unrestricted free agency, he could have left the Wizards with nothing in return.
The Wizards picked up a proven point guard in Jones who should be a nice offensive complement alongside another new addition in Jordan Poole. One of Poole’s biggest weaknesses is turning the ball over, which is Jones’ greatest strength.
You could argue that acquiring Jones while later moving off Monte Morris — a player on a cheaper contract with similar strengths and weaknesses – doesn’t make much sense. However, the Wizards did receive a future second-round pick for Morris, and Jones has higher upside as a play-maker, even if his shot hasn’t been as consistent.
Since Jones, Gallinari and Muscala are all on expiring contracts, it’s certainly possible that all three players could be on the move before the February trade deadline. The Wizards are in the early stages of retooling their roster after dealing away Porzingis and Bradley Beal– continuing to accumulate assets is the most prudent course of action; if they can get positive returns, they might take them.
If Jones has a big year, maybe that means they re-sign him and trade him down the line. Maybe they just keep him for a few years – he’s only 27. There’s plenty of flexibility to work with there, which is valuable when the roster isn’t close to contention.
It’s hard to envision Gallinari having much value at his age and coming off a major injury, even if he’s had a long and very productive career. Still, maybe someone will bite and give up a second-rounder or two if he shows he’s healthy after a second ACL tear.
As for Muscala, he showed last season he could have positive trade value – the Celtics gave up a couple second-round picks to land him from OKC. His $3.5M contract is the most affordable of the three players, which makes matching salaries easier as well, especially for the league’s top spenders.
