The Detroit Tigers are baseball’s best, having won 10 of their last 13 games heading into a three-game series against the surging St. Louis Cardinals on Monday, May 19, at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals will square up to them with seven straight series and own a 12-4 record through the month of May.
Detroit will send Keider Montero (1-1, 4.68 ERA) to the mound, while St. Louis counters with veteran Sonny Gray (4-1, 4.50 ERA). The Tigers’ recent success has been fueled by a balanced offense and a revitalized bullpen, including the return of reliever John Brebbia from the injured list.
I’ll break down the lines for the series opener between the two trending clubs.
Tigers vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line and Total
The Cardinals have turned their season on a dime since the start of May, and in those 16 games, Donovan leads the team in hits with 20 — nine of those have been doubles. Donovan’s eye for the strike zone has been atop the game. He whiffs on only 11.8% of his swings and carries a strikeout rate of 10.8% via Statcast. Historically, Donovan has found success against the Tigers. The left fielder owns a .278 average that consists of five hits and a pair of home runs in six games. He’s never faced Montero before in his career, but I’m uneasy on Montero’s standing in the bottom 10% overall in weighted on-base average is enough to pave way for the Over. Donovan’s season as the team’s best hitter (.330/.387/.466) raises questions as to why his total bases prop is set as long as +120 at FanDuel. Tigers vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick Detroit continues to pound the ball with consistent hard contact — a dangerous combination for Cardinals starter Sonny Gray, whose recent outings have shown signs of regression in exit velocity. In tandem with the hard contact, Gray’s strikeout rate has dropped considerably this season. This gives the potential for fireworks with a Cards lineup that has powered the club to eight wins in their last 10 by ranking second in MLB in batting average. Montero is likely a placeholder as the Tigers will opt to lead a bullpen-heavy game. Montero could handle the middle innings, but his 5.15 xERA and low strikeout ability set up well for a Cardinals team that thrives by putting the ball in play with a .304 average on balls knocked into play. The Tigers wield one of the sharpest bullpen’s around, though I’m going to lean on a home team that has the second-most hits and a .262/.334/.404 slash line. Factor in the warm weather in St. Louis and two streaking offenses, and I like the chances of betting the Over of 8 runs.
