WNBA rookie rankings: Clark and Reese compete for the top slot…
The WNBA returned from its Olympic break two weeks ago, and already the players are anticipating the start of the playoffs in less than a month.
Since the break, players have produced seven games with thirty or more points, while Angel Reese has recorded three consecutive games with twenty or more rebounds, and Caitlin Clark established a record for the most rookie assists. 2024 has surpassed 2023 as the most successful year ever for the WNBA in terms of attendance.
In light of this, it’s time to take another look at this year’s rookie class, which is led by Clark and Reese. As usual, we’ll use an average of the following advanced value indicators to rank the first-year phenoms according to their total consensus wins added: The win shares (WS), estimated wins gained from player efficiency rating (PER), and wins generated using estimated RAPTOR, a plus/minus style stat that takes into account a player’s contribution to her team’s net rating during a game, are all provided by Basketball-Reference.
Given that each statistic has different priorities—PER values volume scoring, WS values efficiency, and RAPTOR values on-court impact—combining the three should provide us with a comprehensive picture of the players who have been contributing the most this season.
We’ll also list each player’s 0-100 percentile ratings in relation to the league for each of the following: scoring (based on points per 100 possessions), true shooting percentage, passing (based on assist rate), rebounding rate, and defensive impact (based on both RAPTOR and defensive rating). This will help you see what each player has been good (or bad) at. Now let’s look at the rankings for qualified players who are currently active, that is, who have not been injured and have played at least 10 minutes per team game. All figures and rankings are as of August 27.Even though Reese is getting closer every day, the stats still favor Clark for WNBA Rookie of the Year, despite the fact that Clark is a huge favorite according to ESPN BET. Reese’s stat totals, such as her multiple double-doubles—22 (including a 15-game string at one point—tie for third most in a WNBA season, just six behind Alyssa Thomas of the Connecticut Sun’s record from the previous campaign. These factors contribute to Reese’s narrow advantage in PER.
Because of her enormous influence on Chicago’s play when she’s on the court, Reese also performs well in terms of estimated RAPTOR. When Reese is playing, the Sky have a net rating of plus-0.6 points per 100 possessions; when she sits, they have an unbelievable minus-20.8 points per 100 possessions. Reese has the best on-versus-off real plus-minus in the WNBA, despite the fact that Chicago has one of the weakest benches in the league.Finally, individual efficiency scores provide Reese a significant advantage over Clark in WS. Reese is up 4 net points per 100 (104 offensive rating versus 100 defensive rating) on the possessions she is solely accountable for, while Clark is down 7 net points (101 offense, 108 defense). That strategy has obvious drawbacks because it ignores usage rate, which favors Reese over Clark 26.5% to 22.0%. However, usage rate is a significant factor in the WS method and the main reason why our consensus average favors Reese over Clark.
Where she needs to get better: Reese’s actual shooting percentage (46.1%) is still lower than the league average (53.4%), primarily due to her poor 3-point shooting performance of 39.3%. She has shot even worse in that area since coming back from the break; thus far in August, she has made 32.9% of her twos, and she is also making 66.7% of her free throws.
Reese has to improve her effectiveness as an interior scorer since she lacks depth (hitting 18.2% of her 3-pointers on just 11 attempts), but she makes up for it in other ways because she is such a strong rebounder and foul-drawing force.
